^^Feb 8, 2009 1:43pm Here's my reason for taking the short. 1. Wicks of the two candles circled on my 15m chart, are matching at 4847. After both candles closed, some like to call these tweezers. These candles together typically support a change in direction. 2. Quick glance at the first candle circled on the 15m chart, it has notbottom tail, the body and the wick are about equal. Sellers are coming into the market or profit is being taken, which ever point of view you want. 3. We were near the 1h upper channel trendline. 4. Time of day and end of the week were a factor 5. My risk to reward was extremely low. I had a 20pip SL I put on the trade once I get into the market. After the 15m candle closed that I entered on, I secured +3 and let her run. I could have closed it out within 18m of being in the trade for 60 pips. I didn't close it out right away because of my overall bearish view of cable. I would have loved to have seen a pin on Friday, but that was not the case. I did close before my broker closed for the weekend for some nice pippage. Trade well! EO
^^Jan 11, 2009 3:39pm
Here's my 1h view
The orange line is my 10sma
The red is my 50sma
The blue is my 62ema
The green is my 200sma
Price is currently between the 50/62. The ma's are going flat and the 10 is starting to show weakness and the desire to come across the 50/62. Also, the 50/62 have been apart for awhile and they like to come back together and either bounce or cross. The 1.513x area is showing it's support pretty good here on this chart. Look at how the price has respected the low of the candle circled in green on my chart. The 1h 62 is close in price at 1.5112. If we break the 1.513x area, I would look for her to spike through the 1h 62 and look for a long from 1.51x to 1.508 with tight sl. I'll be looking to tie in with the PA on the 15m chart. I would not be willing to set a PO for this. I want confirmation of the bounce up before I pull trigger. Patience! If we break the 1.50 area, I'm looking to target the 200sma. I'll be watching to see how price reacts around the 4h 50/150 price area. If I'm in a trade short, I'll be watching my 15m chart for the entry signal long. I'll keep my SL above the 15m 50ema if it proves to show a long entry. Or, I'll close my short and go back long on her looking for the entry short again to get out of my long.
Notice how the last 1h candle is showing a solid move up from it's opening price. She never went negative. She closed damn near right at the 50sma price. Over the weekend, I've seen price above 1.5223. 1.5250 has some light resistance, but I would be looking for shorts a little higher up and SL above 1.538x no matter what price I took to go short on her. Will price respect the high of the candle circled in red on the chart?
Trade well!
EO
^^Jan 11, 2009 12:33pm
Here's my 4h outlook
The red is my 5sma
The orange is my 10sma
The black is my 150ema
The blue is my 50ema
Notice how the last 4h candle closed below both the 5 and 10? The 5 and 10 have not crossed or bounced in a while. It's time for something to happen, if they cross, she's moving down to the 50/150 area. Now, this area will be interesting, she could slide through this area and continue on. If I'm not in a position and I find our price at the 1.4930 area, I'm going to start looking for my candle setups for a long. SL set according to the candle that I enter off of. I will keep my SL lower than the wick of the candle that is closed before my entery. I will not be looking for a quick bounce, although at PO Long at 4910 and SL tight, it could be a bounce that pays out nice, where I wouldn't get the entry til around 4925-30 with a wider SL. Patience, I'm willing to give up the 15-25 pips in my SL for the confirmation. Greed, no need to be greedy either, there's enough pips to go around. Other side of the candles, she could hold at the 1.513x area and go back up to 1.53 area or even higher. Again, I'll be watching her around the high 1.535x -1.537x area for the option of a short. If 1.547x area breaks, then 1.555x will be the next stop going towards 1.57. This dip below the 5/10 could be a breather and a push to the upside flushing the dollar even more is on the way. Either way, I don't care, I just want to be on the right side of the trade.
Trade well!
EO
^^Jan 11, 2009 11:47am A new battle begins. Here's my daily outlook The black is my 100sma The red ma is my 50ema The blue is my 10sma The orange ma is my 5sma Notice how the daily has respected the 50ema? She's been up here before, then goes back down. This is the 3rd time she's been up here since she crossed it in Aug 08. This time, she's spent more time here. I believe the hold up here this time has been emotions in the market. More traders are back to their desks, and an idea that they bought the bottom around 1.44 is making them drool. I think the reality is going to set in and at very least, give us a couple hundred pips from the 1.53 area. I'll be watching closely from 1.5250 area for a nice opportunity to take a short. Friday her high was 1.5354, Thursday her high was 1.5376, so she didn't make a higher high Friday, and our candle closed down. Another item that I look at this point is the 5/10sma. Notice how wide they are. Kind of looks like an alligator mouth coming out of the water. These like to come back together, but the also like to open up and say AHHHHH!!! So, my SL would be above 1.5380 but tight. Depending upon how we open, if she should open with a gap up, I'll be watching how price is reacting and taking the short when she shows the door. Patience here, you don't want to go short automatically at 1.5250 and miss the opportunity to get in at 5275 or even 5325. The closer I can get in around the 535 area, with a tighter SL, the better. I'll be targeting the 1h 50/62 for TP levels and reactions. I'll cover more on my 1h review in another post. As a postion trade opportunity, the daily is still showing a lower high since making a lower low. Could be an opportunity to hold a trade until the end of the week and move your SL securing profits. This could be the final push to complete retracement to 1.37xx. The buyers down there are waiting to take a hard swing. Be ready for that day should it ever present itself. Trade well! EO
^^Jan 9, 2009 12:03pm Something for our 1h trades. Nice channel she's formed here. Not looking for massive pips here. Enter on good PA, TP when she tells you to get out. Here's the color scheme of the ma's: orange is 10, red is 50, blue is 62 Trade well! EO
Quote:
| Originally Posted by mpurdy1973  how do you trade on the M15 and H1 using your MAs? i know about the H1/62ema trade...it works great (im 2 for 2 so far) |
^^Nov 29, 2008 12:58pm I so wish I could have traded the US Session the day after Thanksgiving. I dedicated to day to family time. I look back at the day though and say YUMMY! This was a hell of a day to make some great money. I've circled some candles that I absolutely love to see after she's made a move. Once the circle candle closes, I'm opening my orders on the next candle's open. Patience is key here, don't try and get in before the candle forms and closes. I've seen current working candles that I would swear were going to close the way I wanted and in the last 30 sec of close, she fills out and takes away the setup. If you get in before the candle has a chance to close, you could be on the wrong side of the tracks all for what, a couple of pips. PATIENCE.
^^Nov 16, 2008 5:14am 15m Chart coinciding with 1h 62ema
Attached is the 15m chart leading up to the 1h 62ema price. She was set up on both the 15m chart and the 1h 62ema chart for the fall. These setups scream at me to take them.
^^Nov 15, 2008 3:33pm 1h 62ema Chart Setup
Attached is the perfect 1h 62ema setup. You've all heard me say it, 'I love the 1h 62ema!' This setup was idealic on how the long candle before entry closed with a little wick and tight to the EMA. Don't ask, don't question why, don't say to yourself, "It's against the trend", just pull the trigger to go short on the opening of the following candle. This draw down on this trade was only 15 pips and she fell over 200 pips. That's a nice risk:reward ratio! Please note: Not all 1h 62ema's setup like this one did. There are times she will only run up and touch/near the ema value and run back down. I'll take the entry and manage the movement off the 15m charts once I'm in the marke ^^Nov 13, 2008 3:47pm
^^Feb 5, 2009 1:20pm I put this on the cable thread today, thought I might repost it here aswell. Notice how she was ranging back and forth over the ma's. I have this area blocked off with the black lines. When the ma's are flat like this, it makes for a great opprotunity to scalp her back and forth, watching your PA and not being married to your position. Now, if that's not your style, she did break out of the range. I'm not talking about the breakout of 4500, I'm talking about the range it had formed for the day. Here is where I used my 5/10ema to get into the trade. I missed it from the bottom, but I had the confirmation when the 15m candles wouldn't close under the range top. Once that happened, I set a PO for the price between the 5/10ema. I would normally only go with the price of the 5, but with the long wick on the prior candle, I wanted to reduce my risk. My SL was the price of the 50ema. I knew the break of 4500 was going to be limited because it was a high selling area, but at the same time, when she breaks out of her range, she's usually good for 100 pips or so. The PA showed me it was time to get out and at the same time, I knew I wanted to short her up there, so I closed and reversed my position. My broker is great about this. If I have 5 longs and I want to close and go short. I order 10 shorts at X price and it closes out my longs and sends me marching short with 5.
^^Feb 5, 2009 11:34pm
^^Feb 5, 2009 11:51pm I'm out looking for the 15m 21 to get back in. Here's why with the trendline.
^^Feb 6, 2009 11:54pm Do we all remember this setup? She's having a tough time clearing the first circled area on the left. If she does, it will shoot up, but watch the PA for her to come back down. I would prefer that we get this 15m candle working and the 1h candle to close over 4750 to support my long movement.
^^Feb 7, 2009 1:06am Here's my 4h that just closed. Bullish yes, but if I wasn't in a trade I would have went short on the opening of the current 4h.
^^Feb 7, 2009 1:35am In case anyone is wondering what candle I'm talking about. It's the one circled in red. They are good candle to play off of, let the price work up the candle, and go short on her when she gets near the top. Remember though, you don't want one of your 15m candles to close above the wick. If you get a 15m candle take it out, meaning it closes above the wick, that setup is done. Next trade please.
^^Feb 7, 2009 3:18am ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I enter most of my trades off the 15m chart while keeping the higher time frame charts in my eye. 90% of the time, I enter a trade once the new 15m candle opens and the one closes that I'm looking for. Don't try and be preemptive here. Let the 15m chart tell you when it's time to enter. Here are some examples of when I will not wait for the 15m candle to close and a new one to open: A fresh touch of the 1h 62ema. If she hasn't touched the 1h 62ema in a while, I will enter the trade opposite of the direction she came from when she gets to the 1h 62ema. Let's say price is running and it's ran 150pips North to the 1h 62ema, I will go short with the price of the 1h 62ema. This is really nice when the 50sma and 62ema are on top of each other, there is no hesitation in the order, I'll either set the pending order and let it take me into market or pull the trigger on the order. Another example, straddle orders when price has consolidated on the 15m and all the ma's are lying together. I'll post a chart to show how this works. There are other options to this as well and we'll discuss those too. There are other reasons I would enter a trade without waiting for the 15m candle to close/open, but I need to post charts to show what I mean. Charts are next. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Nov 29, 2008 12:58pm
Quote:
| Originally Posted by Vourvoul I also want to thank you for sharing your thinking in trading and would like to contribute to your thread with the following questions. Firstly, do you always have an opposite pending order at your SL? When and how do you scalp? (I don't but I know I am missing out  )If you were to give a characteristic for each MA you have on the different TFs on your charts (as indicated on the first page) what would it be? Please keep this thread going. Thanks |
I do not always have an opposite pending order at my SL. There are times when she's getting ready to breakout, that I will have an opposing order at my SL. For example, if she's been playing ping pong back and forth the ma's on the 15m chart, we're getting into heavy volume time of the London or US Session and we're getting tighter highs and tighter lows. She's getting ready to pop. She's not always wanting to breakout though. She likes to breath. Look at your charts, it looks like a damn heartbeat. This leads me into your next question about scalping.
I do like to scalp during the Asian session. The 15m chart playing off the ma's and going after 15-30 pips, sometimes more if she's giving it up. The Asian session, leading into the London session usually gives a nice opportunity for scalping in my eyes. She's building up during this time for a move usually and a commitment of 100-200 pips on that move. This is when I start looking for my counter orders at my SL.
I'm not sure I understand your question about giving a characteristic to the MA's I have on my charts. I hope this is what your looking for. On the 15m chart, I respect the 35sma along with the 50sma/ema more than the others. Once we have a breakout, I'm looking at the 10/21 next to confirm the movement and get into the trade if I missed the intial entry point. After she breaks out, she will usualy pullback near the 10 first, confirm the move and fall more. If she doesn't fall farther than her current low, she's coming back to the 21. If the 21 doesn't hold, she'll goto the 35 next. On the 1h chart, I highly respect the 62 along with the 50. Now, we don't usually see the 62/50 area everyday, so my next respect is on the 10. Whatever side the 10 is holding her on, I'm looking for trades in that direction primarily (IE She's being held under the 10, I'm looking for short setups). I don't rule out long setups though. This is where price action comes into play. If you don't know about price action, please go study up. On the 4h chart. I value the 10 over the 5. I'm not entering trades off the 4h charts anymore because I'm not looking for one trade to hold over a day or more. Trading off the 4h chart is a great opportunity and allows you to set a trade and walk away. This is a great way to trade, don't get me wrong, but I can make 3x+ by trading her for her movements than only making 1 trade per day.
I hope I've answered your questions. Please let me know if you have any questions at anytime. Trading is not that hard once you see it for what it is.
Trade well!
EO
Dec 2, 2008 11:46am
Quote:
| Originally Posted by manize Nice to see this thread bro. I have a question about M15 ema35 and 50 breakout and then wait on 10/21 to confrim the movement. Is it eligible both for short and long ? |
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Dec 24, 2008 6:42am
Quote:
| Originally Posted by Turtle Yo EO.........  As far Pending Orders go, when do you place them???? And do you place them near MA's??  What is your thought process towards this??  HOLLA  |
Hope this helps!
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Chart Configurations
Here are the charts that I use and what I have applied to them.
15m:
10ema, 21ema, 35sma and 50sma
1h:
10sma, 50sma and 62ema
4h:
5sma, 10sma, 50ema and 150ema
Day;
5sma, 35sma and 50ema
Please note, the charts have different types of MA's applied to them. Some are EMA's and some are SMA's. MA's are nothing more than floating support/resistance. I use them for balance points and price targets for profit taking.
__________________15m:
10ema, 21ema, 35sma and 50sma
1h:
10sma, 50sma and 62ema
4h:
5sma, 10sma, 50ema and 150ema
Day;
5sma, 35sma and 50ema
Please note, the charts have different types of MA's applied to them. Some are EMA's and some are SMA's. MA's are nothing more than floating support/resistance. I use them for balance points and price targets for profit taking.
Trade what you see NOT what you expect.
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